Simulateur de retraite Monte Carlo

Lancez des milliers de simulations de retraite pour comprendre la probabilite de reussite de votre plan selon differents scenarios de marche.

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Monte Carlo Retirement Simulator

Run 1,000+ simulated market scenarios to estimate the probability your retirement savings will last. This tool uses historical return distributions to model different market outcomes and shows you how likely your plan is to succeed.

Your Information

Current Age

18years100years

years

Planned Retirement Age

36years100years

years

Life ExpectancyAverage US life expectancy: 76-79

66years120years

years

Financial Details

Current Retirement Savings

$0$10,000,000

Annual Contribution (Until Retirement)How much you'll save per year before retiring

$0$100,000

Annual Retirement SpendingHow much you'll spend per year in retirement (adjusted for inflation)

$10,000$500,000

Asset Allocation

How your retirement savings are invested. Total must equal 100%.

Total Allocation: 100.0%

StocksHistorical: 10% avg return, 18% volatility

0.00%100.00%

BondsHistorical: 5% avg return, 6% volatility

0.00%100.00%

CashHistorical: 3.3% avg return, 0.9% volatility

0.00%100.00%

Advanced Settings

Inflation RateHistorical average: 3%

0.00%10.00%

Number of SimulationsMore simulations = more accurate (slower)

10010000

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Sources & References

S&P 500 Historical Returns

• Average annual return (1926-2024): ~10% nominal, ~7% inflation-adjusted
• Standard deviation: ~20% (indicating significant year-to-year volatility)

→Source: NYU Stern - Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills(2024)

Dividend Yields

• S&P 500 average dividend yield: 1.5-2.0% (as of 2024-2025)
• Historical dividend growth rate: ~5.9% annually (1960-2024)

→Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices(2024-2025)

Bond Returns

• 10-Year Treasury bonds: ~5% average annual return (1926-2024)
• Corporate bonds (investment grade): ~6% average annual return

→Source: NYU Stern - Corporate Finance Data(2024)

Inflation Rate

• Long-term average: ~3% annually (1926-2024)
• Recent (2020-2024): 2-8% range with 2022 peak at 8%

→Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Price Index(2024)

Important

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market returns vary significantly year-to-year. These are long-term historical averages.

⚠️ Important