Economics

Stagflation

Stagnant economy with high inflation—worst of both worlds. Rising prices + high unemployment + no growth. Rare but devastating.

Also known as: stagnation and inflation, economic stagflation

What You Need to Know

Stagflation is simultaneous economic stagnation and high inflation—typically high unemployment, slow/negative GDP growth, and rising prices. Considered worst economic scenario because solutions conflict.

The dilemma:

  • Fight inflation: Raise interest rates → worsens unemployment and kills growth
  • Fight unemployment: Lower rates, increase spending → worsens inflation

Famous example: 1970s stagflation

  • Inflation: 13.5% peak (1980)
  • Unemployment: 9% (1975)
  • GDP growth: Negative in 1974-1975
  • Stock market: -40% real returns over decade

Causes (1970s):

  • Oil supply shocks (OPEC embargo)
  • Nixon ending gold standard
  • Government price controls
  • Loose monetary policy + supply constraints

2022 had stagflation fears: 9% inflation, GDP contracted Q1-Q2, but unemployment stayed low. Fed raised rates aggressively to kill inflation despite recession risk.

Protect against stagflation:

  • TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)
  • Commodities (gold, energy)
  • Stocks with pricing power
  • Avoid long-term fixed-rate bonds

Sources & References

This information is sourced from authoritative government and academic institutions: