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Ran Fidelity Magellan 1977-1990 with ~30% annual returns, growing from $18M to $14B. Retired at 46 because father died at 46. Worked every Saturday 11 years. 1 in 100 Americans in fund - average people's money. Fund declined 10%+ ten times. 1987 crash: people wrote letters cheering him up, not complaining.
Best universities but K-12 not hot. Americans less likely to graduate HS than parents. 25 years ago dropouts had jobs, today need computer/English. Being dropout tragedy - 85% of 2M prisoners illiterate. Solutions: Teach for America, testing 4x/year, principal leadership academy at Boston College.
Great managers like Fred Smith, Iacocca, Welch are problem solvers. Management is getting things done through others. Have to listen, encourage, push, understand people, set goals, lead. Make mistakes. Difference between persistent (good) and stubborn (terrible). Best managers listen and research independently.
Bottom-up investor. Visit companies, ask about competitors. Get in 1st-3rd inning with proven formula, not drawing up lineup. Walmart 10 years after IPO in only 15 states, went up 50x more. When everywhere, 8th-9th inning. Three C's: Complacency worst. Understand what you own - when goes 10→6, buy more. Listening more important than asking. Be kind, courteous, precise.
30 years in mall/industry, see Gap/Best Buy/Circuit City - which crowded and better. Yet buy biotech/oil instead - no sense. Steel industry see improvement first. Mutual funds don't have advantage. People in business see first. Do same research as refrigerator. We research TV more than medicine - stunning.
Put money in retirement fund, compounds tax-free. Start early. Before individual stocks, paper portfolio: write 10 companies and why (5 words). Check year later. Find what you're good at: turnarounds, growth, pricing. Do 4-5 years, learn, specialize. Lynch owned thousands, average person needs few in lifetime.
Since 1990: computer trading waste/disruptive but information much more available - calls on web, don't wait for mail. Average person knows same as professionals. Market fairly priced. Corporate profits 7-8%/year - double every 10 years. 10-year bond barely 2% - stocks best 10-20-30 years. Next 2 years? Never know.
Visited North Dakota for fracking research (all 50 states now). Usually 1 in 4 wells hit, fracking all A+/B+. Costs dropping - faster, less sand/water. 11K feet down, water table 2K - mistakes go down not up. Gas $2/mcf, Europe 10x. Will change America's energy future.
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