Does rebalancing hurt returns?

Does Rebalancing Hurt Returns?

Rebalancing is a key component of portfolio management, but it often raises questions about its impact on returns. While some investors worry that rebalancing might hurt performance, the truth is more nuanced. The effect of rebalancing depends on various factors such as market conditions, asset correlations, and costs associated with implementation. Let's dive deeper into what rebalancing is, how it influences returns, and what investors should consider when applying this strategy.

The Essence of Rebalancing

At its core, rebalancing is the process of adjusting the weights of assets in a portfolio to maintain a desired allocation. This is crucial because market fluctuations inevitably cause your portfolio to drift away from its original target. For example, if you start with a 60/40 allocation between stocks and bonds, and stocks outperform significantly, your portfolio might become 70/30. Rebalancing brings it back to the original 60/40 target. This can be done through various methods, such as:

• Fixed threshold bands: Rebalancing when asset allocations deviate beyond a set percentage, like 3%. For instance, if your target is 50% stocks and your stock allocation grows to 53% or shrinks to 47%, you would rebalance. This method offers a balance between maintaining your target allocation and avoiding excessive trading.
• Calendar-based schedules: Rebalancing monthly, quarterly, or annually. A common approach is annual rebalancing, often done at the end of the year for tax planning purposes. While simple, this method may not be responsive to significant market shifts that occur mid-year.
• Buffer strategies: Allowing a margin of drift before rebalancing, which can reduce transaction costs and improve risk-adjusted returns. This involves setting a wider band than the fixed threshold. For example, instead of rebalancing at a 3% deviation, you might wait until the allocation drifts by 5% or more. This approach acknowledges that small deviations are often insignificant and not worth the cost of rebalancing.

Rebalancing is primarily aimed at maintaining a specific risk profile rather than maximizing returns. A portfolio that is not rebalanced can become riskier over time, as the asset class with the highest returns becomes a larger portion of the portfolio. However, its impact on performance can be significant under certain conditions.

Rebalancing and Returns: What's the Connection?

Rebalancing can have both positive and negative effects on returns, largely depending on market dynamics:

• Return Enhancement Potential: A study over a decade using a 3% fixed threshold found that rebalancing increased annualized returns by 56 basis points, adding over $10,000 to portfolio value compared to a buy-and-hold approach. However, these gains aren't consistent across all market environments. This highlights the potential for rebalancing to "buy low and sell high," capturing gains from asset classes that have become undervalued.
• Modest Gains in Many Scenarios: In many cases, particularly when assets behave similarly, like US stocks and bonds during periods of low volatility, rebalancing adds less than 10 basis points of extra annual returns. The notable benefits occur when asset classes diverge significantly, as seen in 2022 when US Growth stocks fell 36.7% while US Value stocks remained relatively stable. This illustrates that rebalancing is most effective when there are significant performance differences between asset classes.

Real-World Example

Imagine a portfolio split equally between US Growth stocks (e.g., technology companies) and US Value stocks (e.g., established, dividend-paying companies). Let's say you start with $50,000 in each asset class for a total portfolio of $100,000. As Growth stocks fell by 36.7% in 2022, they would be worth $31,650 ($50,000 * (1 - 0.367)). US Value stocks, which only lost about 1%, would be worth $49,500 ($50,000 * (1 - 0.01)). Without rebalancing, your portfolio would be heavily weighted towards Value stocks.

Rebalancing would involve selling approximately $8,925 of Value stocks to buy Growth stocks. This would bring both asset classes closer to the original $50,000 allocation (or a 50/50 split of the new portfolio value). This action could potentially capture future gains when Growth stocks recover. For example, if Growth stocks rebounded by 20% the following year, the rebalanced portion would gain significantly more than if you had simply held the original, unbalanced portfolio. This demonstrates how rebalancing can enhance returns in volatile markets and enforces a disciplined approach to investing.

Hidden Costs of Rebalancing

While rebalancing can theoretically boost returns, it also comes with costs:

• Transaction Costs: Every time you rebalance, you incur trading fees, which can erode gains. These fees can include brokerage commissions, bid-ask spreads (the difference between the buying and selling price of an asset), and potentially even taxes if you are selling assets in a taxable account. For example, if you pay $10 per trade and rebalance quarterly, that's $40 per year in transaction costs.
• Market Impact: Large-scale rebalancing by institutions can affect stock prices, with equity returns decreasing by 17 basis points the day after rebalancing. This is because large buy or sell orders can temporarily move the market price of an asset. While this impact is more pronounced for institutional investors, it can also affect individual investors, especially those trading in less liquid assets.
• Front-Running Risks: Predictable rebalancing patterns can lead to market participants exploiting these trades, further impacting returns. For example, if a fund announces it will rebalance its portfolio on a specific date, other traders may try to anticipate the fund's moves and profit from the resulting price fluctuations.

Recent research suggests that these costs might amount to $16 billion annually, or about $200 per U.S. household. This highlights the importance of considering the overall cost-benefit ratio of rebalancing.

Common Mistakes and Considerations

• Overly Frequent Rebalancing: Too frequent rebalancing can lead to unnecessary transaction costs without significant improvement in returns. For example, rebalancing monthly when asset allocations only deviate slightly is generally not beneficial. A better approach is to monitor your portfolio regularly but only rebalance when necessary.
• Ignoring Asset Correlations: Understanding how different assets move relative to each other can help determine the best rebalancing strategy. If two asset classes are highly correlated (move in the same direction), rebalancing between them may not be as effective. Conversely, if asset classes are negatively correlated (move in opposite directions), rebalancing can be more beneficial.
• Neglecting Market Conditions: Rebalancing during highly volatile periods might be more beneficial, but it requires careful timing and analysis. In a rapidly declining market, rebalancing too early might mean buying into a falling knife. It's important to consider the underlying causes of market volatility and whether the decline is likely to be temporary or more prolonged.
• Tax Implications: Selling assets in a taxable account can trigger capital gains taxes, reducing your overall returns. Consider the tax implications before rebalancing, and explore tax-advantaged accounts for rebalancing when possible. For example, rebalancing within a 401(k) or IRA has no immediate tax consequences.
• Not Having a Clear Investment Policy Statement (IPS): An IPS outlines your investment goals, risk tolerance, and rebalancing strategy. Without a clear IPS, rebalancing decisions can become arbitrary and inconsistent.

Actionable Tips and Advice

1. Develop a clear Investment Policy Statement (IPS): This document should outline your investment goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, and rebalancing strategy.
2. Choose a rebalancing method that aligns with your risk tolerance and investment style: Consider fixed threshold bands, calendar-based schedules, or buffer strategies.
3. Monitor your portfolio regularly: Track asset allocations and market conditions to determine when rebalancing is necessary.
4. Consider the tax implications of rebalancing: Minimize taxes by rebalancing within tax-advantaged accounts whenever possible.
5. Be mindful of transaction costs: Choose a brokerage with low fees and consider the impact of bid-ask spreads.
6. Don't try to time the market: Rebalancing should be a disciplined process, not an attempt to predict short-term market movements.
7. Review and adjust your rebalancing strategy periodically: As your financial goals and risk tolerance change, your rebalancing strategy may need to be updated.

Bottom Line

Rebalancing is a crucial tool for maintaining a portfolio's risk profile and providing discipline. While it doesn't consistently enhance returns, it can be beneficial in volatile markets when asset classes diverge significantly. However, investors must weigh the potential benefits against the costs, such as transaction fees and market impact. For most investors, the primary value of rebalancing lies in risk management rather than return generation. To optimize rebalancing, consider your asset correlations, market conditions, and rebalancing strategy that aligns with your financial goals.

Key Takeaways

• Rebalancing is about maintaining your desired risk level, not necessarily maximizing returns.
• The benefits of rebalancing are most apparent during periods of high market volatility and divergence between asset classes.
• Transaction costs, market impact, and tax implications can erode the potential benefits of rebalancing.
• Develop a clear IPS and choose a rebalancing method that aligns with your individual circumstances.
• Regularly monitor your portfolio and adjust your rebalancing strategy as needed.