Understanding Home Energy Savings
Solar panels, home batteries and heat pumps cut energy bills in different ways. Solar replaces electricity you would otherwise buy, a battery shifts when you use that electricity, and a heat pump delivers more heat per unit of energy than a furnace or baseboard heater. This calculator combines your current electric and gas bills with the upgrades you select to estimate yearly savings and payback. The notes below explain the physics and the costs behind those estimates.
Solar production. A panel array produces roughly its size in kilowatts multiplied by your daily peak sun hours, 365 days a year, less 15 to 20 percent for inverter, wiring, heat and shading losses. A 6 kW system in a region with 4.5 peak sun hours therefore makes around 7,900 kWh a year, close to three quarters of the roughly 10,500 kWh a typical US home uses. Panels lose about 0.5 percent of output per year, so after 25 years they still produce close to 88 percent of their original output.
- Southwest (AZ, NM, NV): 5.5 or more peak sun hours
- California and the West: about 5.0
- Southeast (FL, GA, NC): about 4.5
- Midwest (IL, MI, OH): about 4.0
- Northeast (NY, MA, VT): about 3.5, often offset by higher electricity rates
Batteries. A battery rarely pays for itself on bill savings alone. It earns its keep where utilities charge more in the late afternoon and evening (time-of-use rates), where net metering credits for exported solar have been cut so storing your own power is worth more than selling it, and where outages are frequent enough that backup power has real value. Expect a battery to lengthen the payback of a solar project rather than shorten it.
Heat pumps. A gas furnace turns 80 to 98 percent of its fuel into heat. An air-source heat pump moves heat instead of making it, delivering about 2.5 to 3.5 units of heat per unit of electricity (a coefficient of performance, or COP, of 2.5 to 3.5); ground-source systems reach about 3.5 to 4.5. Efficiency falls as outdoor temperatures drop, but many cold-climate models are rated to keep heating well below 0°F. Savings are largest when you replace electric resistance, propane or oil heat, and smallest when you replace an efficient gas furnace where electricity is expensive.
Federal tax credits have ended for new installations. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21, signed July 4, 2025) ended the 30 percent Residential Clean Energy Credit (IRC 25D) for solar, battery and geothermal expenditures made after December 31, 2025, and the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (IRC 25C) for heat pumps and other improvements placed in service after that date. Projects completed in 2025 or earlier could still claim them, and an unused 25D credit from those years can be carried forward. For anything installed now, budget without a federal credit and look for state rebates, utility programs and local incentives instead; the DSIRE database (dsireusa.org) lists them by state.
Doing the upgrades together. Pairing solar with a heat pump lets daytime solar production cover part of the new heating load, and replacing gas appliances can remove the fixed monthly gas connection fee entirely. Size a solar array for the electricity use you expect after electrifying, not the bill you have today, and get at least two installer quotes, because installed prices per watt vary widely between companies and regions.
