Diana has a $300,000 mortgage at 7.0%. Her payment is $1,996 a month. Rates slip to 6.0%, a lender quotes her a new payment of $1,799, and the savings looks obvious: $197 a month. Then the same lender mentions $4,500 in closing costs, and the decision stops being obvious. Refinancing only wins if she stays in the house long enough to claw that $4,500 back.
Run the division and the picture sharpens. $4,500 ÷ $197 = 23 months to break even. If Diana keeps the home five years, she nets roughly $7,320 after costs ($197 × 60 months minus $4,500). If she's listing the place in eighteen months, she pays $4,500 to save $3,546 and walks away behind. Same rate drop, opposite verdict, and the only variable that flipped was time.
The old rule of thumb says refinance whenever you can cut your rate by a full point. It's a fine first filter and a terrible final answer. A 1% drop on a $150,000 balance moves far less money than the same drop on a $400,000 balance, so the bigger loan can justify higher closing costs that the smaller loan never could. The rate gap tells you nothing on its own. Monthly savings, total costs, and how long you'll stay tell you everything.
A few factors tilt the math before you even pull a quote:
- How far into the loan you are. Refinancing in year two captures most of the interest savings; refinancing in year twenty resets the clock on a loan you've nearly paid down.
- Your equity. Below 20% you're often paying PMI again, which eats into the monthly savings the rate drop just bought you.
- Your credit score. Lifting it 40-60 points before you apply can earn 0.25-0.5% better pricing, and on a large balance that gap is real money.
- Your timeline. If you might sell or refinance again inside the break-even window, the answer is no, regardless of how good the rate looks.
This calculator does that division for your actual numbers and shows the break-even month before you commit. Enter your balance, your current rate, the rate you've been quoted, and the closing costs, and decide from the result instead of the rule of thumb. This calculator provides estimates based on the information you enter. For advice tailored to your situation, consult a qualified professional.